Read the Open

The Open, lesson 7: What a bad year looks like

Long flat stretches, losing streaks and long waits for a new high. What a bad year looks like for The Open, and what we do about it.

Three rules, one curve

The Open, The Close and The Map trade different parts of the day. How the three fit together, with their backtest and its limits.

The Open: the idea and the backtest

When the market breaks out of its normal range after the open, it has tended to keep going. The Open trades that move and is flat by the close. The idea, and its backtest.

What we tested, including what failed

Most of what we test fails. The list so far, with the numbers: the structure model, the dealing range, sweeps, five timing rules and every way we tried to cut The Close's drawdown.

The Close: the idea and the long-run backtest

One decision a day: buy a sharp dip inside an uptrend and get out on the bounce. Where the idea comes from, and its long-run backtest, losing years included.

Structure in five words

Swing, break of structure, change of character, sweep and dealing range, defined tightly enough that two people would mark the same chart the same way.

The Close: Course workbook

Seven lessons on The Close, from the idea behind it to what a bad year looks like, plus a test checklist and journal template.

The Close, lesson 1: The idea and the research behind it

The idea behind the rule, the public research it comes from, and what our own tests found, including where the edge is thin.

The Close, lesson 2: Why the money is made overnight

Where the profit in a dip trade arrives, why the rule holds through the night, and what that costs.

The Close, lesson 3: The exact rules

Every number in the rule: what has to be true to buy, what has to be true to exit, and how the arithmetic works.

The Close, lesson 4: The daily routine

What to read just before the close, what each of the four messages means, and where each order fills.

The Close, lesson 5: The second trade

A second trade with its own entry and exit, and the stretch where it lost money.

The Close, lesson 6: Sizing for the worst drawdown

The rule has no stop, so size is the only brake. How to plan for the worst drawdown instead of the best year.

The Close, lesson 7: What a bad year looks like

What losing years, quiet years and long waits for a new high look like in the backtest.

The Close, worksheet: Test checklist and journal template

A checklist for testing a rule honestly, and a journal layout for logging every signal before you know the outcome.

The Map: Course workbook

Thirteen lessons on reading index futures structure, writing four scenarios before the open, and the rule behind The Map’s calls.

The Map, lesson 1: Swings you can define

What a swing is, when it exists, and the two tiers to read: internal swings for entries, swing structure for context.

The Map, lesson 2: Breaks and changes of character

How a break of structure differs from a change of character, and how a close decides which one you have.

The Map, lesson 3: Sweeps: a level taken and given back

How a sweep differs from a break, and why the close decides which one a level gives you.

The Map, lesson 4: Premium, discount and the dealing range

The dealing range, its midpoint, and what premium and discount mean for where you look to buy or sell.

The Map, lesson 5: Two timeframes: context and entry

How a context chart and an entry chart split the work: direction and zone on one, trigger and stop on the other.

The Map, lesson 6: ES against NQ: real divergence or just beta

How to tell a real divergence between ES and NQ from NQ simply moving more than the S&P.

The Map, lesson 7: Where you’re wrong, and how much to risk

Where to put the stop, how to pick the first target, and how to size a trade from the distance to the stop.

The Map, lesson 8: The full read, start to finish

One trade, read from context to placement, and the order to read it in.

The Map, lesson 9: Four scenarios to write before the open

Four scenarios to write before the open, each with the level that decides it.