Notes
The notes explain what each rule does, why we trust the evidence, and how to check us. Free, no sign-up. New to this? Follow the path first.
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- 01How to read a trading track recordHow to judge any trading service’s numbers, ours included. Five questions to ask.Note
- 02Three rules, one curveWhat each rule does, how the three share the trading day, and the limits of the backtest.Note
- 03The wait is the jobWhy most traders fail between knowing a rule and following it. The Wait, lesson 1.Lesson
- 04The Open: the idea and the research behind itThe published research on the morning’s move, and what our own test found.Lesson
- 05The Close: the idea and the research behind itWhy a sharp dip inside an uptrend has tended to bounce, and why the rule has no stop.Lesson
- 06The recordThen watch it for a week. One line a read, a day after members saw it, misses included.Live
All notes, newest first
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How to read a trading track record
Three kinds of numbers show up on trading sites. What each one tells you, what it leaves out, and five questions to ask any service, including us.
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Three rules, one curve
The Open, The Close and The Map trade different parts of the day. How the three fit together, with their backtest and its limits.
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The Open: the idea and the backtest
When the market breaks out of its normal range after the open, it has tended to keep going. The Open trades that move and is flat by the close. The idea, and its backtest.
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What we tested, including what failed
Most of what we test fails. The list so far, with the numbers: the structure model, the dealing range, sweeps, five timing rules and every way we tried to cut The Close's drawdown.
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Structure in five words
Swing, break of structure, change of character, sweep and dealing range, defined tightly enough that two people would mark the same chart the same way.
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The Close: the idea and the long-run backtest
One decision a day: buy a sharp dip inside an uptrend and get out on the bounce. Where the idea comes from, and its long-run backtest, losing years included.