The Close: the idea and the long-run backtest
One decision a day: buy a sharp dip inside an uptrend and get out on the bounce. Where the idea comes from, and its long-run backtest, losing years included.
The idea is simple. In an uptrend, an index that falls sharply has tended to bounce soon after. The Close turns that into one decision a day, near the close: it buys the dip and gets out on the bounce. It is long only, holds one position at a time and has no stop.
Where it comes from
The rule isn't ours. It comes from published research on short-term pullbacks from 2008, and we took it as published, with no tuning. We tested five documented timing rules for owning an index on the four big index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM) from their launch, after costs, and we registered the test before fetching the data. Only this one passed. Every year since 2008 is data the rule was not built on.
The long-run backtest
What the evidence says
| Hypothetical trades, June 2000 to October 2026 | 204 |
|---|---|
| Winning trades | 68% |
| Winning years | 18 of 25 (72%) |
| Profit factor (total won divided by total lost) | 2.2 |
| Net per NQ contract, after costs | About $158,000 |
| Average trade | About $775 |
| Since 2020 | 57 trades, 70% winners, profit factor 2.6 |
| Typical time in a trade | About 5 days |
| Worst single trade (2025) | About −$22,000 |
| Four index ETFs, from launch, after costs and T-bills | 897 trades, +0.46% a trade |
Futures figures are per NQ contract at $20 a point, on continuous Nasdaq-100 futures daily bars, filled at the next open with 2 ticks of slippage and $2.50 commission on each side. Rounded. This table is the dip rule on its own, on daily closes since 2000; The Close column on the record page runs from 2019 and also counts the second trade.
Hypothetical results1, not actual trading. The full statement is at the end of this page.
What to take from it
The point is consistency, not a home run. Two trades in three have finished positive, and so have seven years in ten. The most recent stretch is the strongest: since 2020, 70% winners and a profit factor of 2.6.
One thing to respect. The rule has no stop, so a sharp drop that starts during a trade is taken in full. That is why the course gives sizing a lesson of its own.
The Close has posted its levels before the open and its result after the close since October 2026. Nothing from those posts is claimed here; see the record. Those posts check that the rule can be traded exactly as tested.
The year-by-year chart is on the backtest page. The first two lessons of the course are free, starting with the idea and the research behind it. The exact rules, the daily routine and sizing come with the daily read.
Education only. Nothing here is advice about your account.